In 2024, there are 64 countries with National elections, accounting for 49% of the global population with the opportunity to vote for new National leadership this year, including the UK – who voted in a new Prime Minister on July 4 – and the US with an upcoming Presidential election just around the corner.
Not only is this the largest National election year to date; but, this election cycle is also fascinating due to a number of unprecedented factors at play, such as a change in how people interact with social media – specifically TikTok – and the rise of AI.
Cint and Advertising Week partnered to look into these factors, conducting research on the relationship between media influence and voter behavior leading up to this year’s US and UK elections.
Methodology: Studying an evolving political landscape
Two concurrent studies were run through the Cint platform from April 4-9, 2024 in the US and the UK and another study was run just in the US from September 10-30. Each study surveyed 2000 census representative respondents of voting age.
The findings from the UK research were presented on stage in May at Advertising Week Europe ahead of the UK General Election, and the findings from the US research were presented both at Quirk’s New York in July as well as, most recently, at Advertising Week New York in October.
This report will primarily focus on the US data from the most recent study – with some points of comparison to the research ran in April on both sides of the pond – unpacking the findings from a few lenses: generationally, geographically, by political affiliation, and by career industry.
Since April, the political landscape has shifted significantly: the UK election has come and passed and in the US there is a new Presidential candidate headlining the Democratic ticket.
As all research is just a snapshot in time, continuous research highlights shifting trends and provides an updated pulse.
In a sea of change, fear of AI seems to be the only constant
Across all three sets of research, fear of AI and Deepfakes is fairly ubiquitous.
Only 10% of the general public said they are not at all concerned about AI being used to spread misinformation leading up to the upcoming election.
And, while not everyone surveyed was familiar with the concept of Deepfakes, among those familiar only a mere 5% said they are not at all concerned with how Deepfakes will be used to spread misinformation.
Where this fear is coming from aligns with where people are getting their main sources of news.
Media influence: Gen Z and the vicious TikTok cycle
Every generation has their habitual ways of getting news, and this research underlined that no one is particularly interested in looking outside of their comfort zones. Boomers are watching Fox and don’t trust anything they see on the internet; Gen Z is only paying attention to political news on TikTok.
But, do even Gen Z trust what they see on these apps?
The answer is a complicated yes and no.
When asked about their most trusted and least trusted media source, Gen Z answered TikTok in both categories.
Gen Z is hyper aware of how social media algorithms work in feeding them specific, often one-sided information and about the lack of fact checking on these platforms. They also overwhelmingly say that TikTok is increasing their fear of AI being used to spread misinformation.
This generation is stuck in a loop of primarily getting their news from TikTok and turning to it as the source of truth, while simultaneously being skeptical that the news they see on TikTok might be fake, and being heavily influenced by what they are seeing – whether they are certain it is real or not.
When looking at where Millennials and Gen X are getting their news, one thing that changed is back in April Facebook was the leading social media platform, while by September YouTube took the lead.
(Interested to dig deeper into this phenomenon? Check out a recent article in Digiday covering more of the research presented at Advertising Week NY).
We’re drinking our own Kool-Aid
51% of Marketers agree with the statement “I trust all content shared in political ads”
Overall, a prominent theme that came to light throughout the research is that Gen Z is the most impressionable and influenceable generation. Whether from the news, traditional political ads, social media influencers and celebrities, or consumer brands; Gen Z-ers stood out as significantly most likely to have their vote influenced by external factors. Conversely, Boomers’ votes are the least likely to be influenced by anything.
Although, there is a trend that all generations of voters are becoming less influenceable closer to the election.
In the most recent research, when asked if they would be influenced by a Political ad, 60% of Gen Z say they will be influenced, as do 50% of Millennials and 35% of Gen X. Whereas 50% of Boomers say they will not at all be influenced.
When asked if they trust the content shared in political ads, 37% of Gen Z thinks all political ads are vetted and 35% agree with the statement “I trust all content shared in political ads”.
When split by political affiliation, Democrats are slightly more trusting of content shared in ads than their Republican and Independent counterparts.
Likely the most interesting stat for you – insights professionals, marketers, and advertisers – is that when split by industry, people in Advertising, Marketing and Communications were the most trusting industry with 51% of people polled saying they trust all content shared in ads, with 60% saying they are likely to be influenced.
This was a slight dip from 72% of people in Advertising, Marketing and Communications saying they were likely to be influenced back in April.
Unsurprisingly, there is a strong correlation between trust in political ads and the likelihood to be influenced by them.
What do you meme: Presidential candidates on social media
When comparing the 2024 election season to previous elections, a new form of political advertising which has been massively spiking recently is candidates (and their marketing teams) using social media to connect with voters.
This follows suit with advertising trends across other industries as well, as the importance of personal branding and influencer marketing has become a crucial piece of the marketing puzzle.
This form of advertising is no doubt a potentially powerful campaign strategy tool. But, do American voters like it?
Over half of Gen Z as well as over 60% of those working in Advertising, Marketing and Communications, and in Tech say a Presidential candidate having a strong social media presence will influence their votes.
When specifically asked how they feel about politicians leaning into meme culture:
- People in Tech most like this trend.
- Nearly half of Gen Z and over a third of Millennials like it.
- Republicans have the strongest dislike (over 40%) for it.
Do voters care who their favorite celebs are voting for?
It’s not just Presidential hopefuls using social media to connect with voters and attempt to sway their votes; celebrities and social media influencers are using their platforms to endorse candidates and party values as well.
55% of Gen Z and 42% of Millennials said they are likely to be influenced by influencers and celebrities endorsing a specific party or candidate.
It’s worth noting that while this was not specifically mentioned in the survey, the September research was fielded the day after Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris, spurring a slew of rhetoric debating whether someone with as much sway as Taylor Swift taking a political stand.
But, even though the voices praising celebrities like Taylor seem loud, most people actually don’t really want celebrities to endorse candidates or get political:
- 25% of Gen Z and Millennials say they like when a celebrity makes an endorsement. Under 9% of Gen X and Boomers say the same.
- Republicans have the strongest dislike when celebrities and influencers take a political stand.
- People in Advertising, Marketing and Communications most like when celebrities/influencers take a political stand.
The conversation surrounding celebrities being involved in politics was one of the places there were significant differences between the US and the UK research, as the intersection between celebrities and politics is much more of a thing in the US, not so much in the UK.
The business bet of consumer brands taking a political stand
Another difference between the UK and the US is the relationship between consumer brands and politics – both in terms of influence on consumer behavior and on influencing voters. In general, advertising and politics are kept much more separate across the pond.
When asked how voters feel about companies with consumer brands, rather than people with personal brands, voicing political stances or backing specific candidates:
- Millennials most like when consumer brands take a political stand. Gen Z are pretty split, while older generations trend more towards dislike.
- Republicans have the strongest dislike for when consumer brands take a political stand.
- People in tech most like when consumer brands take a political stand. As do 40% of people in Advertising, Marketing and Communications.
Although Millennials’ most like when consumer brands take a stand; the power of consumer brands taking a political stand only really influences Gen Z – 50% of whom say they are likely to be influenced by consumer brands endorsing a specific party or party values.
Flipping the script, however, from how consumer brand endorsements impact voters to how dipping their toes in politics impacts consumer behavior does show varying influence across demographics.
It is clear that consumer brands take a political stand, it is crucial for them to understand exactly who they are hoping to reach. The potential benefit is winning younger generations as 60% of Gen Z and 50% of Millennials are more likely to support a consumer brand aligned with their values; however, the risk is losing Gen X and older of which 40% say they will stop supporting a brand that comes out as being misaligned with their values.
When split down party lines, Democrats are the most likely to support a consumer brand aligned with their values.
Conclusion
There are stark demographic differences on how voters are getting their media, how much influence media has over their politics, and how much influence politics has over their consumer behavior.
However, the one area everyone seems to be aligned about is that there is a distrust in the media and a fear of the spread of misinformation due to the rapid adoption of AI.